Book Recommendations

I always wanted to put together a list of recommendations for my readers, because so much of what I read and listen to is curated by my friends, family and coworkers. I truly appreciate recommendations from people I respect so I wanted to return the favor.

Personal Finance & Investing  

The Wealthy Barber

Simply the best personal finance book I’ve read to date. If you read it I’ll bet you laugh and become significantly more knowledgeable. If you implement his main suggestions I’ll bet it will make you at least $300,000.

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Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth

The foundational investing book everyone should read. It will change you understanding of the costs of not leveraging a long-term strategy that includes compounding. If you want to read it and you are in Colorado let me know, I have about 10 copies in my library that I loan out to friends.

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The Intelligent Investor

The best investment book for people who actually enjoy investing. The definition of a classic investing book. I wrote about some of the books lessons here.

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Charlie Munger: The Complete Investor

If you enjoyed The Intelligent Investor, this is the perfect next read. Buy it, you won’t regret it.

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Happy Money

The sooner we realize that more money doesn’t directly lead to more happiness the better. This book walks you through the basics including what you can spend money on that will actually make you happier. I wrote about Happy Money here

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Non-Fiction

Shoe Dog

Truly one of the best books I’ve read in the last decade. A must read for all admires of Nike. Great lessons of business, luck and running. Warren Buffett even called it the best book he read in 2016.

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Endure: Mind, Body, and the Curiously Elastic Limits of Human Performance

Endure collects and explains a significant about of research around the performance of humans during all types of endurance events (hiking in Antarctic, climbing Everest, running crazy distances), it’s exceptionally interesting. “Makes the case that we’re actually underestimating our potential, and reveals how we can all surpass our perceived physical limits.” - Adam Grant

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The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine

Not surprisingly, the book is a thousand times better than the movie. And All Michael Lewis books get a recommendation from me. I promise that you will enjoy this one.

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A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street, How I Beat the Dealer and the Market

A surprisingly great read about Edward Thorp, the greatest investor you have never heard of. It’s an true story of the card-counting mathematics professor who taught many “how to beat the dealer” and became one the first of the great quantitative investors, crushing the market in nearly all conditions.

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On Deck (What I Plan to Read Next)

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Beastie Boys Book

Added by special request! How could you not love a book written by the surviving members of American’s most unique and most diverse rap group? Check out a nice interview here. The reviews are off the charts.

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The Model Thinker

When Michael Mauboussin recommends a book I take note. It promises to provide a toolkit to help us better leverage data and analytics to our advantage. 

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Revisiting the Intelligent Investor

My favorite investing strategy comes from the "father of value investing," Benjamin Graham. It works for me because it fits my temperament and personality; and it's logical for me (in part, because I've added my own "safety net" to the approach). It's probably not the ideal investment strategy for you (Jim O'Shaughnessy had a few well written tweets on this recently: 1, 2) but it has been the foundation of my investment approach for over a decade. In this quarter's newsletter, I review the performance of this strategy and revisit a few of my favorite parts of Ben Graham's classic book The Intelligent Investor.

First, the three year performance figures (more about this approach here). I'm planning a future post about how I leverage global value stocks (GVAL) in this strategy when the US market is overvalued. Obviously, I'm quite happy with this performance, but I don't expect the good times to continue forever (even the best strategies underperform the market about 30% of the time).

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Second, let’s review a few nuggets of wisdom from The Intelligent Investor. My book is full of highlights, and I wanted to limit the length of this post so I limited myself to nine quotes.

“Several years ago Ben Graham, then almost eighty, expressed to a friend the thought that he hoped every day to do “something foolish, something creative and something generous.”

This is a fun quote from the start of the book... when is the last time you did “something foolish, something creative and something generous” in a day? I think of Mr. Graham as an analytical type so it really strikes me that he recommends being foolish and creative on a daily basis.

“The defensive investor must confine himself to the shares of important companies with a long record of profitable operations and in strong financial condition.”

Graham consistently discusses the value of the long-term track record. In my experience, it's difficult to find companies that have a ten year history free of share dilution, dividend cuts, excess debt, etc. Companies with strong historical metrics tend to offer downside protection.

“The third is the device of “dollar-cost averaging,” which means simply that the practitioner invests in common stocks the same number of dollars each month or each quarter. In this way he buys more shares when the market is low than when it is high, and he is likely to end up with a satisfactory overall price for all his holdings.”

Graham (and basically all intelligent investors) recommend dollar-cost averaging.

"The rate of return sought should be dependent, rather, on the amount of intelligent effort the investor is willing and able to bring to bear on his task. The minimum return goes to our passive investor, who wants both safety and freedom from concern. The maximum return would be realized by the alert and enterprising investor who exercises maximum intelligence and skill.”

A greater return is available to those who are willing to "work" for it. However, if you don't have the right temperament, skills and patience you are best severed as a passive investor.

"The Basic Problem of Bond-Stock Allocation We have already outlined in briefest form the portfolio policy of the defensive investor.* He should divide his funds between high-grade bonds and high-grade common stocks. We have suggested as a fundamental guiding rule that the investor should never have less than 25% or more than 75% of his funds in common stocks, with a consequent inverse range of between 75% and 25% in bonds. There is an implication here that the standard division should be an equal one, or 50–50, between the two major investment mediums. According to tradition the sound reason for increasing the percentage in common stocks would be the appearance of the “bargain price” levels created in a protracted bear market. Conversely, sound procedure would call for reducing the common-stock component below 50% when in the judgment of the investor the market level has become dangerously high."

Graham emphasized owning high-grade bonds and holding between 25% - 75% of your portfolio in bonds.

“Nonetheless we are convinced that our 50–50 version of this approach makes good sense for the defensive investor. It is extremely simple; it aims unquestionably in the right direction; it gives the follower the feeling that he is at least making some moves in response to market developments; most important of all, it will restrain him from being drawn more and more heavily into common stocks as the market rises to more and more dangerous heights.”

Graham recommends a 50/50 mix of stock and bonds for the defensive investor. 

"A caution is needed here. A stock does not become a sound investment merely because it can be bought at close to its asset value. The investor should demand, in addition, a satisfactory ratio of earnings to price, a sufficiently strong financial position, and the prospect that its earnings will at least be maintained over the years. This may appear like demanding a lot from a modestly priced stock, but the prescription is not hard to fill under all but dangerously high market conditions.”

Throughout the book, Graham frequently emphasizes caution and defensiveness. It's clear to me that Graham's experiences during the great depression shaped his thinking. Every time I review The Intelligent Investor this stands out to me, it's almost always a good time to wonder: is my current investment strategy too aggressive?  

"Let us close this section with something in the nature of a parable. Imagine that in some private business you own a small share that cost you $1,000. One of your partners, named Mr. Market, is very obliging indeed. Every day he tells you what he thinks your interest is worth and furthermore offers either to buy you out or to sell you an additional interest on that basis. Sometimes his idea of value appears plausible and justified by business developments and prospects as you know them. Often, on the other hand, Mr. Market lets his enthusiasm or his fears run away with him, and the value he proposes seems to you a little short of silly. If you are a prudent investor or a sensible businessman, will you let Mr. Market’s daily communication determine your view of the value of a $1,000 interest in the enterprise? Only in case you agree with him, or in case you want to trade with him. You may be happy to sell out to him when he quotes you a ridiculously high price, and equally happy to buy from him when his price is low. But the rest of the time you will be wiser to form your own ideas of the value of your holdings, based on full reports from the company about its operations and financial position."

Mr. Graham created "Mr. Market" to explain how irrational the crowds that drive market prices can be.  Understanding that prices don't always reflect true value is key to understanding how one can create a strategy to outperform the market.

"The most realistic distinction between the investor and the speculator is found in their attitude toward stock-market movements. The speculator’s primary interest lies in anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations. The investor’s primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices."

Graham makes a clear distinction between the "speculator" and the "investor." I'd argue that the majority of individuals that own stock act as market speculators and not true investors.  

You Pick Correctly, You Win… Can You Pick the Right Mutual Fund?

Let’s start with a question: Are you an above-average driver?

Chances are, about 85% of you answered yes. This means that 35% percent of the population answered this question incorrectly. Yet, even knowing that information, you are likely thinking to yourself “who are these people that are overconfident of their driving ability, because it’s surely not me.”

I mention this because, in past newsletters, we have discussed how the typical investor underperforms the market (link). I’m guessing you read that information and thought… other people underperform the market, not me (just like other people are below average drivers, not me). I have a challenge to see if you’re right. I’ve compiled historical returns from various mutual funds. I’ll provide the past performance figures and you pick the one that you expect to perform best (for now, just assume that I have done the research on these funds and they can be considered a wise investment).

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Which fund did you pick? My guess is 90% of you picked B, E or I (highlighted below). In the next table, I show the performance of each of these funds for the ten years following the date that you made your selection.

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At this point, many of you probably have buyer’s remorse. Funds B, E and I didn’t perform as well as you might have expected them to. If you could select again, which funds would you select? Funds A, D and H seem ideal given perfect hindsight. Yet personally, I never would have picked those funds, especially not A or D because they performed so poorly in the past.

This exercise is designed to explain a concept common in investing (and life) called mean reversion. Investopedia defines mean reversion as “the assumption that a stock's price will tend to move to the average price over time” and you can see this happening in the above example. Periods of underperformance are often followed by outperformance and vis-versa. I’ve include a brief three-minute video with some additional background on mean reversion, below.

Now to illustrate this point, I took a few liberties with the facts in my example above. The returns I used were actually provided were decade long returns for large stocks (via James O'Shaughnessy). Here is what the full chart looks like…

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A graph helps to illustrate the up and down (mean reversion like) nature of stocks since 1910.

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In order to clarify this concept, let’s discuss an example of mean reversion that doesn’t involve investing. Assume I play basketball and I’ve made 30% of the first one thousand three point shots I’ve attempted (shots 1 – 1000). Over the next one hundred three point shots I take (shots 1000 to 1100) I only make 17% of them. In the subsequent one hundred three point shots I attempt (shots 1100 to 1200), would you expect me to:

  1. Make 30% of the shots I attempt
  2. Make >30% of the shots I attempt
  3. Make <30% of the shots I attempt

We know if I take a large number of shots I should shoot 30%. In our most recent smaller sample (of 100 shots) I only shot 17%. Therefore, I’d suggest I’m most likely to shoot >30% over the next one hundred shots (which would push my average shooting percentage closer to 30%, thus reverting to the mean). Of course, there are no guarentees what will happen in the next hundred shots, any range of outcomes is possible.

So now that we have all had a quick introduction to mean reversion – let’s try this again. The following graph is from a value focused fund I manage. Between August 2015 and August 2016 it outperformed the S&P 500 (blue line). Can you guess what happened next?

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From Aug 2016 and Aug 2017 it underperformed the S&P 500 (reverted to the mean).

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Finally, let’s look at the performance of the fund since inception. Periods of underperformance (highlighted by triangles) made outperformance (from that point in time) more likely. Similarly, periods of outperformance (highlighted by circles) were often followed by periods of underperformance.

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The takeaway from this post shouldn’t be a hard and fast rule – not everything reverts to the mean. Great companies, great funds and great housing markets can outperform their benchmarks for significant periods… and some companies (or even stock markets) tumble down all the way to zero. Yet, I’ve found using the concept of mean reversion to frame future expectations as a helpful tool. Hopefully you will too.

 

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